Modeling Transmission Potential of Mosquitoes Vectors of Topical Diseases

Vector-borne tropical diseases such as Malaria and Dengue are a leading cause of children mortality. Because in many situations no specific treatment and/or vaccine are available, mosquito control remains the unique prevention tool. A better knowledge of the vector transmission potential can be gained through the development of stochastic models. The mosquito Aedes aegypti transmits the dengue haemorrhagic fever which affected in 1998, 1,200,000 people worldwide with 3,628 deaths. Ae. aegypti field data were collected in French Guiana and the mosquito’s biological parameters were analyzed and modeled according to the Maximum Likelihood Theory. The results were related to the environmental conditions and used to build a dynamical flow-chart through mosquito physiological stages. The vector infective status was introduced in the model with the vectorial capacity concept. The simulated vectorial capacity was found to fluctuate more or less simultaneously and in the same direction as the number of dengue cases. This model will be now validated, computerized and adapted to vector control. Index Terms – Computer-based vector control, Dengue Fever, modeling, vector transmission potential. Florence Fouque is an entomologist with the Pasteur Institute of French Guiana, Laboratory of medical Entomology, B.P. 6010, 97300 Cayenne, cedex. E-mail: [email protected]. Dominique Bicout is a physician with the Unity of Biomathematics, National Institute of Agronomic Research/Veterinary National School of Lyon, 1, Av. Bourgelat, 69280 Marcy l’Etoile, France. E-mail: [email protected]. Philippe Sabatier is a Biostatistician, Head of the Unity of Biomathematics, National Institute of Agronomic Research/Veterinary National School of Lyon, 1, Av. Bourgelat, 69280 Marcy l’Etoile, France. E-mail: [email protected].